Joshua Byrini's Market View
Byrini's obeservations should not be considered recommendations, advice or suggestions to buy, sell or hold securities, commodities, commodity contracts, options, futures, warrants, insurance contracts, real estate, gemstones, art work or derivatives, as he is neither a registered securities, commodities or real estate broker, diamond merchant, art dealer, or investment advisor. These observations are for informational purposes only. In other words, you are on your own chief.Friday, November 11, 2005
ASH and COP
Barron's pumped them last week in an interview with a portfolio manager, so how'd they do? COP tades at a P/E of 7, which is less than Exxon's 10. It yields 1.92, which is also less than XOM's 2.05%. ASH trades at an absurd p/e of 2, a chemical company that also lays pavement down.
Well, if you bought the refinery story in ConocoPhilips COP, you'd be down 10%, in spite of their advertising campaign to overcast that straight talking head on MSNBC who has been echoing the congress as they stick it to the oil companies for their windfall profits.
Do American not know they are fighting oil wars? I'm thinking they get it, and the democrats trying to make hay out of the VP's situation are not going to get anywhere further than one of Saddamn's lawyers. Why? (ready for this?)
Because Americans know that "secure" oil markets are in their best interest, and maybe the environment too, if it slows down dirty industries in places that really don't count the pollution (china, india, and places were labor is .19 cent's per hour). Is that radical? Is it reactionary? Will these frigging COP calls pop?
This demonstrates a trading error, the story of a man falling for a good story told by a fool to a .... whatever. COP runs a major refinery operation and they own 13% of Lukoil, which you'd be buying cheap at current levels. Yet, money is flowing out because there is headline risk as the Bush and VP take lumps in polls.
I am thinking there are more than a few headline risks, like those hotels in Jordan, and the 400lbs of explosives we heard was found near the Iraqi boarder (he is stationed there). The point is, there are not end to the rabbits that can come out of the hat in that part of the world.
Very entertaining stuff, if you like watching an undervalued company trade down on doubt about oil prices and US support in the middle east. Maybe the world would like to go back to the black market days when Saddam was doing deals with our dirty "allies".
ASH is a turnaround story, according to last weeks Pro in Barron's. So this may take awhile, but at a p/e of 2 with a turnaround story, it may be okay. You'd be down 1% if you jumped in on his word last week, which is also worse than you'd do if you bought the Booyaboy's picks from his show, Mad Money, which are up more than 3% today.
Oil and Roads, Booyah!
posted by BoxedMerlot # 8:59 AM 
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