Joshua Byrini's Market View

Within our portfolio now we have stocks like CIT Group [CIT], Bank of New York [BK] and Marathon Oil [MRO] that could definitely be consolidation candidates.

On the capital-spending front, we think the sweet spot is aerospace, automation, oil services and spending for the electric grid. The companies we favor in those sectors are Honeywell [HON], Textron [TXT], Cooper Industries [CBE], Halliburton [HAL] and Weatherford International [WFT].

Vestas VWS YF 23 3,893

DEO, a stock we owned and traded out to take a profit, but just keeps climbing is the producer of Wines, Beers and Booze in 180 Markets.  It's brands include Johnny Walker, Guinness Stout, Smirnoff, Bailey's, Captian Morgan's, Tanqueray Gin.  It yields over 4% and offers you that extra kick this holiday season, when it's your turn to pay for the drinks.  With a line up of hooch like this, chances are, you'll be paying yourself.

 

We won't tell.

Status of High-Profile Corporate Scandals

 

Nov 23, 2005 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- A look at some of the high-profile corporate scandals of recent years and the status of legal action in each. ADELPHIA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. - Michael Rigas, a son of the founder of Adelphia Communications Corp., pleaded guilty on Wednesday to a charge of making a false entry in a financial record, eliminating the need for his retrial on securities fraud and bank fraud charges in a scandal that forced the cable giant into bankruptcy. John Rigas and his son Timothy were convicted in federal court last year of conspiracy, bank fraud and securities fraud. On June 20, John Rigas was sentenced to 15 years in prison, and Timothy Rigas to 20 years. They are free pending appeal. A fourth executive, Michael Mulcahey, was found not guilty of conspiracy and securities fraud. Last month, John and Timothy were indicted in Philadelphia on charges they and other family members didn't pay $300 million in taxes. WORLDCOM INC. - Bernard Ebbers, who as CEO of WorldCom oversaw the largest corporate fraud in U.S. history, was sentenced on July 13 to 25 years in prison. The sentence was handed down in Manhattan three years after WorldCom collapsed in an $11 billion accounting fraud, wiping out billions of investor dollars. A judge ruled in September that Ebbers can stay out of prison while he appeals his conviction. HEALTHSOUTH CORP. - Former CEO Richard Scrushy was acquitted on June 28 on all 36 counts of conspiracy, false reporting, fraud and money laundering in an alleged $2.7 billion earnings overstatement at the rehabilitation and medical services chain over seven years beginning in 1996. He blamed the fraud on 15 former HealthSouth executives who pleaded guilty. Hannibal "Sonny" Crumpler, a former HealthSouth executive, the second person to stand trial in the fraud was convicted last Friday of conspiracy and lying to auditors for his role in the fraud. TYCO INTERNATIONAL LTD. - Former Chief Executive L. Dennis Kozlowski and Chief Financial Officer Mark H. Swartz were convicted June 17 on 22 of 23 counts of grand larceny, conspiracy, securities fraud and falsifying business records. Prosecutors accused the two of conspiring to defraud Tyco of millions of dollars to fund extravagant lifestyles. The two were sentenced Sept 19 to eight and one-third to 25 years in prison. A judge refused to release Kozlowski and Swartz on bail while they are appeal their convictions. ENRON CORP. - Enron founder Kenneth Lay, former CEO Jeffrey Skilling and former top accountant Richard Causey are scheduled to go to trial in January on federal fraud and conspiracy charges. Former CFO Andrew Fastow pleaded guilty in January 2004 to two counts of conspiracy, admitting to orchestrating schemes to hide the company's debt and inflate profits while pocketing millions of dollars. He agreed to serve the maximum 10-year sentence, which will begin in July 2006, after he testifies against his former bosses. Fastow's wife, Lea Fastow, completed a yearlong sentence in July on a misdemeanor tax charge for failing to report her husband's kickbacks. Former Enron treasurer Ben Glisan Jr. is serving a five-year sentence for his role in the scandal. And two former Merrill Lynch & Co. executives were sentenced to short prison terms for their roles in a bogus Enron sale of power barges. CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON - The company's former investment banking star, Frank Quattrone, was convicted in May 2004 on federal charges of obstruction of justice, after his first trial ended in a hung jury. Quattrone, who made a fortune taking Internet companies public during the dot-com stock boom, was sentenced to 18 months in prison. He is free on bail, appealing the conviction. MARTHA STEWART: The founder of the homemaking empire was released March 4 after serving five months in prison, and finished serving an additional five months and three weeks of home confinement at the end of August. She was convicted in federal court last year of conspiracy, obstruction of justice and making false statements related to a personal sale of ImClone Systems Inc. stock. Her former broker at Merrill Lynch, Peter Bacanovic, served a five-month sentence and was released June 16. He still faces five months of home confinement. Stewart's conviction was not related to the company she founded, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. CENDANT CORP.: Former Cendant Corp. Vice Chairmen E. Kirk Shelton was convicted in January of conspiracy and securities, wire and mail fraud. He was sentenced on August 3 to 10 years in prison and ordered to pay full restitution for his role in an accounting scandal that cost investors and the company more than $3 billion. Shelton was ordered to pay $3.27 billion to Cendant including an initial "lump sum" payment of $15 million last month. Shelton delivered cash, company stock and company-funded insurance policies, a combination that Cendant said is at least $2.4 million short and fluctuates daily. Shelton stood trial with former Cendant Chairman Walter Forbes, whose case ended in a mistrial and will be retried. Four other former executives have already pleaded guilty.

 

"The Latin American drug cartels have stretched their tentacles much deeper into our lives than most people believe. It's possible they are calling the shots at all levels of government."

- William Colby, former CIA Director, 1995

IGR is ING's Global Real Estate Closed End fund, yielding nearly 9%, and worth watching, if they Fed comes to its senses and does not raise rates on the few million homeless in LA and Mississippi

Bouyahboy.com observes:  company ad imbedded in "The Apprentice" show tonight - could result in thousands of subscriptions - triple buy for 24 hours!   This should do something for the Calls in the morning, and by the time Earnings are reported, the King of all media's network may be in the 40s, making the Calls more.   the -OZRAG (Jan 07  Call @ 35) are 4 tonight.

Following up on the Georgia Pacific theme, which followed a Barron's review of the wood business in the wake of the huricane K, it's safe to say that was a solid call on Barron's part. The Jan calls we bought, as of today broke a Josh record, returning 3,514% (yes, that's three thousand, five hundred and fourteen percent in less than one month.).  One could have bought a few of these for .20 each, and could have sold them each for over 7 today.

 

This would obviously cover the cost of your subscription to the WSJ.com and Barrons.

 

 

Barron's pumped them last week in an interview with a portfolio manager, so how'd they do?   COP tades at a P/E of 7, which is less than Exxon's 10.  It yields 1.92, which is also less than XOM's 2.05%.  ASH trades at an absurd p/e of 2, a chemical company that also lays pavement down.

 

Well, if you bought the refinery story in ConocoPhilips COP, you'd be down 10%, in spite of their advertising campaign to overcast that straight talking head on MSNBC who has been echoing the congress as they stick it to the oil companies for their windfall profits. 

 

Do American not know they are fighting oil wars?  I'm thinking they get it, and the democrats trying to make hay out of the VP's situation are not going to get anywhere further than one of Saddamn's lawyers. Why? (ready for this?)

 

Because Americans know that "secure" oil markets are in their best interest, and maybe the environment too, if it slows down dirty industries in places that really don't count the pollution (china, india, and places were labor is .19 cent's per hour).  Is that radical?  Is it reactionary?   Will these frigging COP calls pop?  

 

This demonstrates a trading error, the story of a man falling for a good story told by a fool to a .... whatever.  COP runs a major refinery operation and they own 13% of Lukoil, which you'd be buying cheap at current levels.  Yet, money is flowing out because there is headline risk as the Bush and VP take lumps in polls.

 

I am thinking there are more than a few headline risks, like those hotels in Jordan, and the 400lbs of explosives we heard was found near the Iraqi boarder (he is stationed there).  The point is, there are not end to the rabbits that can come out of the hat in that part of the world.

 

Very entertaining stuff, if you like watching an undervalued company trade down on doubt about oil prices and US support in the middle east.  Maybe the world would like to go back to the black market days when Saddam was doing deals with our dirty "allies".

 

ASH is a turnaround story, according to last weeks Pro in Barron's. So this may take awhile, but at a p/e of 2 with a turnaround story, it may be okay. You'd be down 1% if you jumped in on his word last week, which is also worse than you'd do if you bought the Booyaboy's picks from his show, Mad Money, which are up more than 3% today.

 

Oil and Roads, Booyah!